John Wiley & Sons (WLY)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 75.71% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.40% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of WLY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.1258
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 75.71%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.10%
October 12, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1258 + 0.0015 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(3.4092)
= $30.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y979)
= Exp(a + b × X979 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1258 + 0.0015 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(3.2344)
= $25.39
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1258 + 0.0015 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.0331)
= $56.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1258 + 0.0015 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(3.8583)
= $47.38
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 75.71% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $49.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 8, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.0561
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0357
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.40%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0357) – 1
= 15.36%
July 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0561 + 0.0010 × 1,692 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.8627)
= $47.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,692 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0561 + 0.0010 × 1,692 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.7198)
= $41.26
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0561 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(4.0001)
= $54.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0561 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0357)
= Exp(3.8572)
= $47.33
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.40% per annum.
- WLY price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.