Stock Price Trends

Siriuspoint Ltd (SPNT)

SiriusPoint Ltd. offers specialized P&C reinsurance products to insurance and reinsurance companies around the world. The company is headquartered in Pembroke, Bermuda.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.87% per annum.
  • SPNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.90 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.74% per annum.
  • SPNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SPNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: May 25, 2022
End date: October 2, 2024

a = 0.2831

b = 0.0014

s = 0.1003

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 66.87%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1003) – 1
= 49.35%

May 25, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 917 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2831 + 0.0014 × 917 + 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(1.7700)
= $5.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y632)
= Exp(a + b × X632 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 917 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2831 + 0.0014 × 917 – 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(1.3689)
= $3.93

October 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2831 + 0.0014 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(2.9779)
= $19.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.2831 + 0.0014 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.1003)
= Exp(2.5767)
= $13.15

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 66.87% per annum.
  • SPNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.90 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 12, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 1.1270

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0461

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 36.74%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.23%

April 12, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1270 + 0.0009 × 1,239 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.2812)
= $9.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y852)
= Exp(a + b × X852 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1270 + 0.0009 × 1,239 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.0970)
= $8.14

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1270 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.7844)
= $16.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.1270 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(2.6001)
= $13.47

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 36.74% per annum.
  • SPNT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.