MGIC Investment Corp (MTG)
MGIC Investment Corporation offers private mortgage insurance, other mortgage credit risk management solutions, and ancillary services to lenders and government-sponsored entities in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Guam. The company is headquartered in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.80% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $24.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.87% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 10, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 1.3604
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0429
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0429) – 1
= 18.71%
October 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,055 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3604 + 0.0010 × 1,055 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(2.5360)
= $12.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y726)
= Exp(a + b × X726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,055 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3604 + 0.0010 × 1,055 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(2.3645)
= $10.64
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3604 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.3324)
= $28.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.3604 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0429)
= Exp(3.1610)
= $23.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 45.80% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $24.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.5158
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.56%
August 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5158 + -0.0002 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(3.2687)
= $26.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5158 + -0.0002 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(3.1866)
= $24.21
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5158 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(3.2541)
= $25.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5158 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(3.1720)
= $23.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 5.87% per annum.
- MTG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.