Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company manufactures, markets, and sells lawn and garden products to consumers in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.27% per annum.
- SMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $75.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.16% per annum.
- SMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SMG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.2729
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0799
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 53.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0799) – 1
= 37.65%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2729 + 0.0012 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.0145)
= $55.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y930)
= Exp(a + b × X930 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2729 + 0.0012 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(3.6950)
= $40.24
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2729 + 0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.5691)
= $96.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2729 + 0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0799)
= Exp(4.2495)
= $70.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 53.27% per annum.
- SMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $75.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 15.8930
b = -0.0064
s = 0.0574
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0064) – 1
= -90.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0574) – 1
= 25.81%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8930 + -0.0064 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.6449)
= $104.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,230)
= Exp(a + b × X1,230 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8930 + -0.0064 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.4153)
= $82.71
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8930 + -0.0064 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.4099)
= $82.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.8930 + -0.0064 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0574)
= Exp(4.1803)
= $65.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.16% per annum.
- SMG price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.