CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF)
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a North American manufacturer and distributor of agricultural fertilizers, based in Deerfield, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.35% per annum.
- CF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $87.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.54 (1.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.05% per annum.
- CF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2022
End date: September 20, 2024
a = 4.7424
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1015
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1015) – 1
= 50.05%
March 1, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y572)
= Exp(a + b × X572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 832 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7424 + -0.0003 × 832 + 2 × 0.1015)
= Exp(4.7216)
= $112.35
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y572)
= Exp(a + b × X572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 832 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7424 + -0.0003 × 832 – 2 × 0.1015)
= Exp(4.3158)
= $74.88
September 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7424 + -0.0003 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.1015)
= Exp(4.4705)
= $87.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7424 + -0.0003 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.1015)
= Exp(4.0647)
= $58.25
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.35% per annum.
- CF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $87.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.54 (1.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.9292
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0630
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0630) – 1
= 28.66%
March 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9292 + 0.0003 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.3723)
= $79.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9292 + 0.0003 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.1203)
= $61.58
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9292 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.5342)
= $93.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9292 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0630)
= Exp(4.2821)
= $72.39
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.05% per annum.
- CF price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.