Safehold Inc (SAFE)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.86% per annum.
- SAFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $20.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.37% per annum.
- SAFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SAFE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 9, 2023
End date: November 11, 2024
a = 1.9703
b = 0.0007
s = 0.1007
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 26.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1007) – 1
= 49.59%
August 9, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9703 + 0.0007 × 1,358 + 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(3.0569)
= $21.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y934)
= Exp(a + b × X934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,358 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9703 + 0.0007 × 1,358 – 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(2.6541)
= $14.21
November 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9703 + 0.0007 × 1,818 + 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(3.3567)
= $28.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,818 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9703 + 0.0007 × 1,818 – 2 × 0.1007)
= Exp(2.9540)
= $19.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 26.86% per annum.
- SAFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $20.52 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 17, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 12.6084
b = -0.0053
s = 0.0237
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0053) – 1
= -85.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.94%
September 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6084 + -0.0053 × 1,763 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.3716)
= $29.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,763 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6084 + -0.0053 × 1,763 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.2768)
= $26.49
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6084 + -0.0053 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(3.0398)
= $20.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.6084 + -0.0053 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(2.9451)
= $19.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 85.37% per annum.
- SAFE price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.