EPR Properties (EPR)
EPR Properties is a leading experiential net lease real estate investment trust (REIT), specializing in select and durable experimental properties in the real estate industry.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.87% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $44.64 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.70 (3.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.54% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EPR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 14, 2024
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 1.8778
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0330
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0330) – 1
= 14.11%
March 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0011 × 1,576 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.6908)
= $40.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0011 × 1,576 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.5589)
= $35.12
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0011 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.9458)
= $51.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,243)
= Exp(a + b × X1,243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8778 + 0.0011 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0330)
= Exp(3.8138)
= $45.32
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 49.87% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $44.64 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.70 (3.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 13, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 6.3213
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0168
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0168) – 1
= 6.94%
September 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3213 + -0.0014 × 1,759 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.9295)
= $50.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,210)
= Exp(a + b × X1,210 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,759 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3213 + -0.0014 × 1,759 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.8624)
= $47.58
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3213 + -0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.8372)
= $46.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3213 + -0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0168)
= Exp(3.7701)
= $43.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 39.54% per annum.
- EPR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.