Public Storage (PSA)
Public Storage is an American international self storage company headquartered in Glendale, California, that is run as a real estate investment trust (REIT).
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.23% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $334.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $30.69 (10.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.95% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $27.02 (7.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 18, 2021
End date: July 10, 2024
a = 5.7353
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0725
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0725) – 1
= 33.63%
June 18, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 576 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7353 + -0.0001 × 576 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.8286)
= $339.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y396)
= Exp(a + b × X396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 576 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7353 + -0.0001 × 576 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.5386)
= $254.33
July 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7353 + -0.0001 × 1,694 + 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.7281)
= $307.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,164)
= Exp(a + b × X1,164 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,694 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7353 + -0.0001 × 1,694 – 2 × 0.0725)
= Exp(5.4382)
= $230.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.23% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $334.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $30.69 (10.10%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 18, 2024
a = 2.3902
b = 0.0020
s = 0.0327
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 103.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0327) – 1
= 13.97%
April 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3902 + 0.0020 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.5855)
= $266.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3902 + 0.0020 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.4548)
= $233.87
October 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3902 + 0.0020 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.9584)
= $387.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3902 + 0.0020 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0327)
= Exp(5.8277)
= $339.58
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 103.95% per annum.
- PSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $27.02 (7.48%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.