Extra Space Storage Inc (EXR)
Extra Space Storage is a real estate investment trust headquartered in Cottonwood Heights, Utah that invests in self storage units.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.49% per annum.
- EXR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $165.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.26 (10.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.98% per annum.
- EXR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 25, 2021
End date: June 7, 2024
a = 5.3544
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1027
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1027) – 1
= 50.80%
June 25, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y401)
= Exp(a + b × X401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 583 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3544 + -0.0003 × 583 + 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(5.3828)
= $217.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y401)
= Exp(a + b × X401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 583 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3544 + -0.0003 × 583 – 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(4.9721)
= $144.33
June 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3544 + -0.0003 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(5.0557)
= $156.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3544 + -0.0003 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.1027)
= Exp(4.6449)
= $104.06
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.49% per annum.
- EXR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $165.51 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.26 (10.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4919
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0723
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0723) – 1
= 33.54%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y931)
= Exp(a + b × X931 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,353 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4919 + 0.0009 × 1,353 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.8832)
= $132.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y931)
= Exp(a + b × X931 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,353 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4919 + 0.0009 × 1,353 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(4.5940)
= $98.89
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4919 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(5.3190)
= $204.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4919 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0723)
= Exp(5.0298)
= $152.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.98% per annum.
- EXR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.