Philip Morris International Inc (PM)
Philip Morris International Inc. (PMI) is a Swiss-American multinational cigarette and tobacco manufacturing company, with products sold in over 180 countries. The most recognized and best selling product of the company is Marlboro.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.74% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $130.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.10% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.9233
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 80.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.50%
February 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9233 + 0.0016 × 1,540 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.4840)
= $88.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,059)
= Exp(a + b × X1,059 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9233 + 0.0016 × 1,540 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.3573)
= $78.05
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9233 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.9477)
= $140.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.9233 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(4.8211)
= $124.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 80.74% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $130.39 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 29, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.9993
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0281
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 45.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0281) – 1
= 11.87%
July 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9993 + 0.0010 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.8014)
= $121.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,176)
= Exp(a + b × X1,176 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9993 + 0.0010 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.6892)
= $108.76
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9993 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.9176)
= $136.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9993 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0281)
= Exp(4.8054)
= $122.17
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 45.10% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.