Altria Group (MO)
Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.20% per annum.
- MO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $57.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 280.75% per annum.
- MO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 16, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = 1.6679
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0305
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.20%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0305) – 1
= 12.95%
January 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6679 + 0.0013 × 1,505 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(3.6718)
= $39.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,505 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6679 + 0.0013 × 1,505 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(3.5500)
= $34.81
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6679 + 0.0013 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(4.0862)
= $59.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6679 + 0.0013 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0305)
= Exp(3.9644)
= $52.69
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 60.20% per annum.
- MO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $57.18 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 14, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024
a = -2.6170
b = 0.0037
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 280.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.45%
October 14, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6170 + 0.0037 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(3.9279)
= $50.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6170 + 0.0037 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(3.8560)
= $47.28
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6170 + 0.0037 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.1074)
= $60.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.6170 + 0.0037 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.0355)
= $56.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 280.75% per annum.
- MO price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.