Altria Group (MO)
Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.72% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was $58.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.02% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2023
End date: July 8, 2025
a = 2.3835
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0375
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.72%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.18%
October 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,198 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(3.6029)
= $36.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,198 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(3.4529)
= $31.59
July 8, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.1961)
= $66.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.0462)
= $57.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.72% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was $58.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 17, 2024
End date: July 14, 2025
a = 2.7792
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0326
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.95%
July 17, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,463 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.8967)
= $49.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,463 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.7662)
= $43.21
July 14, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.1571)
= $63.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.0265)
= $56.07
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.02% per annum.
- MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.