Altria Group (MO)
Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.58% per annum.
- MO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $60.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 121.60% per annum.
- MO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 2.2469
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0392
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0392) – 1
= 16.95%
October 26, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y899)
= Exp(a + b × X899 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2469 + 0.0010 × 1,303 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.6165)
= $37.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y899)
= Exp(a + b × X899 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2469 + 0.0010 × 1,303 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.4599)
= $31.81
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2469 + 0.0010 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(4.1339)
= $62.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2469 + 0.0010 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0392)
= Exp(3.9773)
= $53.37
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 43.58% per annum.
- MO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $60.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 10, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 0.0941
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0142
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 121.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0142) – 1
= 5.85%
January 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0941 + 0.0022 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(3.9266)
= $50.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0941 + 0.0022 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(3.8698)
= $47.93
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0941 + 0.0022 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(4.1010)
= $60.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0941 + 0.0022 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0142)
= Exp(4.0441)
= $57.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 121.60% per annum.
- MO price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.