Stock Price Trends

Altria Group (MO)

Altria Group, Inc. (previously known as Philip Morris Companies, Inc.) is an American corporation and one of the world's largest producers and marketers of tobacco, cigarettes and related products. It operates worldwide and is headquartered in unincorporated Henrico County, Virginia, just outside the city of Richmond.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.72% per annum.
  • MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was $58.13 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.02% per annum.
  • MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: October 26, 2023
End date: July 8, 2025

a = 2.3835

b = 0.0010

s = 0.0375

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 41.72%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.18%

October 26, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,198 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(3.6029)
= $36.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y827)
= Exp(a + b × X827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,198 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(3.4529)
= $31.59

July 8, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,819 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.1961)
= $66.43

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,250)
= Exp(a + b × X1,250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,819 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.3835 + 0.0010 × 1,819 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.0462)
= $57.18

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 41.72% per annum.
  • MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was $58.13 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: July 17, 2024
End date: July 14, 2025

a = 2.7792

b = 0.0007

s = 0.0326

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 30.02%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0326) – 1
= 13.95%

July 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,463 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.8967)
= $49.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,007)
= Exp(a + b × X1,007 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,463 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(3.7662)
= $43.21

July 14, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.1571)
= $63.89

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7792 + 0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0326)
= Exp(4.0265)
= $56.07

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 30.02% per annum.
  • MO price at the close of July 14, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.