Stock Price Trends

Planet Fitness Inc (PLNT)

Planet Fitness, Inc., franchises and operates gyms under the Planet Fitness brand. The company is headquartered in Hampton, New Hampshire.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.97% per annum.
  • PLNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $98.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.81% per annum.
  • PLNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.63 (9.63%).

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PLNT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: October 7, 2024

a = 1.0935

b = 0.0019

s = 0.0375

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 98.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.16%

March 13, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0935 + 0.0019 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.1351)
= $62.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,082)
= Exp(a + b × X1,082 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0935 + 0.0019 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(3.9853)
= $53.80

October 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0935 + 0.0019 × 1,782 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.5272)
= $92.50

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,225)
= Exp(a + b × X1,225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,782 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0935 + 0.0019 × 1,782 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.3774)
= $79.63

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 98.97% per annum.
  • PLNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $98.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 10, 2024
End date: November 6, 2024

a = 2.7621

b = 0.0009

s = 0.0287

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0287) – 1
= 12.16%

June 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7621 + 0.0009 × 1,663 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.3463)
= $77.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,143)
= Exp(a + b × X1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,663 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7621 + 0.0009 × 1,663 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.2315)
= $68.82

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7621 + 0.0009 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.4831)
= $88.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7621 + 0.0009 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0287)
= Exp(4.3683)
= $78.91

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 39.81% per annum.
  • PLNT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $8.63 (9.63%).

See Also