Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN)
Cedar Fair, LP owns and operates amusement and water parks and complementary resort facilities in the United States and Canada. The company is headquartered in Sandusky, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 72.56% per annum.
- FUN price at the close of October 21, 2024 was $40.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.19 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.39% per annum.
- FUN price at the close of October 21, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FUN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 27, 2024
End date: October 11, 2024
a = 10.0483
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0394
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0394) – 1
= 17.09%
June 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0483 + -0.0035 × 1,710 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.0695)
= $58.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,177)
= Exp(a + b × X1,177 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,710 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0483 + -0.0035 × 1,710 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.9118)
= $49.99
October 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0483 + -0.0035 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.6940)
= $40.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.0483 + -0.0035 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(3.5363)
= $34.34
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 72.56% per annum.
- FUN price at the close of October 21, 2024 was $40.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.19 (3.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2024
End date: October 21, 2024
a = 7.9019
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0319
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0319) – 1
= 13.60%
July 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9019 + -0.0023 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.9053)
= $49.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9019 + -0.0023 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.7778)
= $43.72
October 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9019 + -0.0023 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.6973)
= $40.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.9019 + -0.0023 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(3.5698)
= $35.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.39% per annum.
- FUN price at the close of October 21, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.