Polaris Industries Inc (PII)
Polaris Inc. designs, designs, manufactures and markets motor sports vehicles worldwide. The company is headquartered in Medina, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.34% per annum.
- PII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $65.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.11 (4.55%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.37% per annum.
- PII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PII price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 1, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.9516
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0907
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0907) – 1
= 43.73%
March 1, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9516 + -0.0003 × 466 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.9936)
= $147.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y318)
= Exp(a + b × X318 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9516 + -0.0003 × 466 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.6309)
= $102.60
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9516 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.5870)
= $98.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9516 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0907)
= Exp(4.2243)
= $68.33
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.34% per annum.
- PII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $65.22 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.11 (4.55%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 1, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.8069
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -26.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.62%
June 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8069 + -0.0008 × 1,288 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.8827)
= $131.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y886)
= Exp(a + b × X886 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8069 + -0.0008 × 1,288 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.5707)
= $96.61
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8069 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.4316)
= $84.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8069 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.1195)
= $61.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 26.37% per annum.
- PII price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.