Mattel Inc (MAT)
Mattel, Inc., a children's entertainment company, designs and produces toys and consumer products worldwide. The company is headquartered in El Segundo, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.63% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $18.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.10% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.1457
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0873
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -4.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0873) – 1
= 41.77%
February 24, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1457 + -0.0001 × 461 + 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(3.2603)
= $26.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y315)
= Exp(a + b × X315 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 461 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1457 + -0.0001 × 461 – 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(2.9113)
= $18.38
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1457 + -0.0001 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(3.0829)
= $21.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1457 + -0.0001 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0873)
= Exp(2.7339)
= $15.39
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 4.63% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $18.35 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.5496
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0442
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0442) – 1
= 19.35%
May 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5496 + 0.0008 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(2.9267)
= $18.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5496 + 0.0008 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(2.7498)
= $15.64
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5496 + 0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(3.0685)
= $21.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5496 + 0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0442)
= Exp(2.8916)
= $18.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.10% per annum.
- MAT price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.