NRG Energy Inc. (NRG)
NRG Energy, Inc. is a large American energy company, headquartered in Houston, Texas. It was formerly the wholesale arm of Northern States Power Company (NSP), which became Xcel Energy, but became independent in 2000. NRG Energy is involved in energy generation and retail electricity.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 112.05% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $94.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.31% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NRG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 10, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 0.8353
b = 0.0021
s = 0.0782
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0021) – 1
= 112.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0782) – 1
= 36.73%
March 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8353 + 0.0021 × 1,206 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(3.4753)
= $32.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y830)
= Exp(a + b × X830 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,206 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8353 + 0.0021 × 1,206 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(3.1625)
= $23.63
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8353 + 0.0021 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(4.7521)
= $115.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.8353 + 0.0021 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0782)
= Exp(4.4392)
= $84.71
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 112.05% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $94.86 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 1, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.6999
b = 0.0010
s = 0.0549
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0010) – 1
= 43.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0549) – 1
= 24.54%
April 1, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6999 + 0.0010 × 1,594 + 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(4.3812)
= $79.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,095)
= Exp(a + b × X1,095 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,594 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6999 + 0.0010 × 1,594 – 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(4.1617)
= $64.18
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6999 + 0.0010 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(4.6099)
= $100.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6999 + 0.0010 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0549)
= Exp(4.3905)
= $80.68
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 43.31% per annum.
- NRG price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.