The AES Corporation (AES)
The AES Corporation is a Fortune 500 company that generates and distributes electrical power. AES is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.43% per annum.
- AES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $13.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.11% per annum.
- AES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of AES price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.3055
b = -0.0003
s = 0.1236
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1236) – 1
= 63.95%
January 6, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3055 + -0.0003 × 412 + 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(3.4409)
= $31.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3055 + -0.0003 × 412 – 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(2.9465)
= $19.04
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3055 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(3.0574)
= $21.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3055 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1236)
= Exp(2.5630)
= $12.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 9.43% per annum.
- AES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $13.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 25, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 15.9729
b = -0.0073
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0073) – 1
= -93.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.02%
September 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9729 + -0.0073 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.0710)
= $21.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9729 + -0.0073 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.9311)
= $18.75
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9729 + -0.0073 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.6606)
= $14.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(15.9729 + -0.0073 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(2.5207)
= $12.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 93.11% per annum.
- AES price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.