MSA Safety (MSA)
MSA Safety Incorporated develops, manufactures, and supplies safety products that protect people and facility infrastructure in the oil, gas, petrochemical, fire, construction, industrial manufacturing, utility, military, and mining industries in America. North, Latin America and internationally. . The company is headquartered in Cranberry Township, Pennsylvania.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.53% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $168.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.12 (9.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.21% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MSA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 22, 2022
End date: August 2, 2024
a = 4.1277
b = 0.0007
s = 0.0616
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0007) – 1
= 27.53%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0616) – 1
= 27.95%
April 22, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 884 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1277 + 0.0007 × 884 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.8399)
= $126.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y609)
= Exp(a + b × X609 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 884 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1277 + 0.0007 × 884 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(4.5935)
= $98.84
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1277 + 0.0007 × 1,717 + 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.3950)
= $220.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,181)
= Exp(a + b × X1,181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1277 + 0.0007 × 1,717 – 2 × 0.0616)
= Exp(5.1486)
= $172.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 27.53% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $168.04 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $17.12 (9.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.8532
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0308
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -13.21%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0308) – 1
= 13.09%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8532 + -0.0004 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.3083)
= $202.01
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,074)
= Exp(a + b × X1,074 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8532 + -0.0004 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.1853)
= $178.62
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8532 + -0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.2058)
= $182.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8532 + -0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0308)
= Exp(5.0828)
= $161.22
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 13.21% per annum.
- MSA price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.