MP Materials Corp (MP)
MP Materials Corp. The company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.84% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.57 (24.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 911.25% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.84 (9.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2021
End date: September 23, 2024
a = 4.5471
b = -0.0013
s = 0.1111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1111) – 1
= 55.94%
November 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y349)
= Exp(a + b × X349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 504 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5471 + -0.0013 × 504 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(4.1127)
= $61.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y349)
= Exp(a + b × X349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 504 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5471 + -0.0013 × 504 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(3.6684)
= $39.19
September 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5471 + -0.0013 × 1,554 + 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(2.7450)
= $15.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,070)
= Exp(a + b × X1,070 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,554 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5471 + -0.0013 × 1,554 – 2 × 0.1111)
= Exp(2.3007)
= $9.98
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.84% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $18.02 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.57 (24.70%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: November 12, 2024
a = -7.1287
b = 0.0063
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0063) – 1
= 911.25%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.93%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1287 + 0.0063 × 1,502 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(2.4877)
= $12.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,502 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1287 + 0.0063 × 1,502 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(2.2976)
= $9.95
November 12, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1287 + 0.0063 × 1,604 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(3.1343)
= $22.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,604 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-7.1287 + 0.0063 × 1,604 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(2.9442)
= $19.00
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 911.25% per annum.
- MP price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.84 (9.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.