Stock Price Trends

Materion Corporation (MTRN)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.82% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $81.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.81 (2.17%).
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.64% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 14, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.7786

b = -0.0007

s = 0.0619

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0619) – 1
= 28.11%

December 14, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7786 + -0.0007 × 1,352 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.9905)
= $147.01

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y933)
= Exp(a + b × X933 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7786 + -0.0007 × 1,352 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.7428)
= $114.75

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7786 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.6714)
= $106.85

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7786 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0619)
= Exp(4.4238)
= $83.41

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.82% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $81.60 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.81 (2.17%).

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 8.6199

b = -0.0023

s = 0.0404

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.54%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6199 + -0.0023 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.8543)
= $128.29

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6199 + -0.0023 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.6926)
= $109.14

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6199 + -0.0023 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.5223)
= $92.05

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.6199 + -0.0023 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.3607)
= $78.31

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.64% per annum.
  • MTRN price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

See Also

Symbol

Company name

MP
MP Materials Corp