Materion Corporation (MTRN)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.98% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $111.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 215.82% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MTRN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 13, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 5.8161
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0516
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0516) – 1
= 22.91%
December 13, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8161 + -0.0006 × 1,484 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.9619)
= $142.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,022)
= Exp(a + b × X1,022 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8161 + -0.0006 × 1,484 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.7557)
= $116.24
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8161 + -0.0006 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.7504)
= $115.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8161 + -0.0006 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0516)
= Exp(4.5441)
= $94.08
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.98% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $111.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2024
End date: November 18, 2024
a = -0.9941
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0375
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 215.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0375) – 1
= 16.17%
October 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9941 + 0.0032 × 1,778 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.6828)
= $108.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,223)
= Exp(a + b × X1,223 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,778 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9941 + 0.0032 × 1,778 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.5329)
= $93.03
November 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9941 + 0.0032 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.8309)
= $125.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9941 + 0.0032 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0375)
= Exp(4.6810)
= $107.88
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 215.82% per annum.
- MTRN price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.