Stock Price Trends

3M Company (MMM)

The 3M Company is an American multinational conglomerate corporation operating in the fields of industry, worker safety, US health care, and consumer goods. The company produces over 60,000 products under several brands, including adhesives, abrasives, laminates, passive fire protection, personal protective equipment, window films, paint protection films, dental and orthodontic products, electrical and electronic connecting and insulating materials, medical products, car-care products, electronic circuits, healthcare software and optical films. It is based in Maplewood, a suburb of Saint Paul, Minnesota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 139.29% per annum.
  • MMM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $128.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.33 (6.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.89% per annum.
  • MMM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MMM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

Primary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2024
End date: October 22, 2024

a = 0.6509

b = 0.0024

s = 0.0461

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 139.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0461) – 1
= 20.23%

January 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,525 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6509 + 0.0024 × 1,525 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.3885)
= $80.52

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,048)
= Exp(a + b × X1,048 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,525 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6509 + 0.0024 × 1,525 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.2042)
= $66.97

October 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6509 + 0.0024 × 1,798 + 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(5.0411)
= $154.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,798 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.6509 + 0.0024 × 1,798 – 2 × 0.0461)
= Exp(4.8568)
= $128.62

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 139.29% per annum.
  • MMM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $128.19 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $9.33 (6.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 5.2825

b = -0.0002

s = 0.0243

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.89%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0243) – 1
= 10.20%

August 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2825 + -0.0002 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.9396)
= $139.72

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,196)
= Exp(a + b × X1,196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2825 + -0.0002 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.8425)
= $126.79

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2825 + -0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.9198)
= $136.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2825 + -0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0243)
= Exp(4.8227)
= $124.30

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.89% per annum.
  • MMM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.