Stock Price Trends

Honeywell International Inc (HON)

Honeywell International Inc. is an American publicly traded, multinational conglomerate headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. It primarily operates in four areas of business: aerospace, building technologies, performance materials and technologies (PMT), and safety and productivity solutions (SPS).

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.53% per annum.
  • HON price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $225.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.33 (7.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.73% per annum.
  • HON price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 9, 2020
End date: May 9, 2024

a = 5.2960

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0626

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -1.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0626) – 1
= 28.45%

November 9, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y199)
= Exp(a + b × X199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2960 + 0.0000 × 286 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.4091)
= $223.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y199)
= Exp(a + b × X199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2960 + 0.0000 × 286 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.1588)
= $173.95

May 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,563 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2960 + 0.0000 × 1,563 + 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.3552)
= $211.71

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,078)
= Exp(a + b × X1,078 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,563 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2960 + 0.0000 × 1,563 – 2 × 0.0626)
= Exp(5.1049)
= $164.82

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 1.53% per annum.
  • HON price at the close of January 27, 2025 was $225.71 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $16.33 (7.80%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: August 1, 2023
End date: January 27, 2025

a = 4.6765

b = 0.0004

s = 0.0343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 15.73%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.70%

August 1, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6765 + 0.0004 × 1,281 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.2579)
= $192.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y883)
= Exp(a + b × X883 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6765 + 0.0004 × 1,281 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.1207)
= $167.46

January 27, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6765 + 0.0004 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.4761)
= $238.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6765 + 0.0004 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.3389)
= $208.29

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 15.73% per annum.
  • HON price at the close of January 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.