Stock Price Trends

CSW Industrials Inc (CSWI)

CSW Industrials, Inc. is a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.95% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was $329.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.33 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.97% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 8, 2022
End date: January 24, 2025

a = 3.0588

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0710

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.95%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.87%

November 8, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,009 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.8250)
= $124.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,009 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.5408)
= $93.77

January 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(6.1255)
= $457.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(5.8413)
= $344.24

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.95% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was $329.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.33 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 31, 2025

a = 9.9552

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0449

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.97%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.65%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(6.1391)
= $463.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.9597)
= $387.49

January 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.9459)
= $382.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.7664)
= $319.39

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.97% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.