Stock Price Trends

CSW Industrials Inc (CSWI)

CSW Industrials, Inc. is a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.68% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $298.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.19 (1.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,218.04% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: April 10, 2025

a = 10.9377

b = -0.0029

s = 0.0426

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -65.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0426) – 1
= 18.57%

November 6, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9377 + -0.0029 × 1,661 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(6.1557)
= $471.40

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,661 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9377 + -0.0029 × 1,661 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.9854)
= $397.56

April 10, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9377 + -0.0029 × 1,816 + 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.7015)
= $299.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,816 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.9377 + -0.0029 × 1,816 – 2 × 0.0426)
= Exp(5.5312)
= $252.44

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 65.68% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 17, 2025 was $298.43 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.19 (1.77%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: April 17, 2025

a = -13.0939

b = 0.0103

s = 0.0388

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4,218.04%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0388) – 1
= 16.81%

April 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0939 + 0.0103 × 1,809 + 2 × 0.0388)
= Exp(5.6457)
= $283.07

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,809 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0939 + 0.0103 × 1,809 – 2 × 0.0388)
= Exp(5.4903)
= $242.34

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0939 + 0.0103 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0388)
= Exp(5.7901)
= $327.06

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-13.0939 + 0.0103 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0388)
= Exp(5.6348)
= $280.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,218.04% per annum.
  • CSWI price at the close of April 17, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.