CSW Industrials Inc (CSWI)
CSW Industrials, Inc. is a diversified industrial company in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.95% per annum.
- CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was $329.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.33 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.97% per annum.
- CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSWI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 8, 2022
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 3.0588
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0710
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0710) – 1
= 32.87%
November 8, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,009 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.8250)
= $124.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y698)
= Exp(a + b × X698 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,009 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(4.5408)
= $93.77
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,817 + 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(6.1255)
= $457.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,251)
= Exp(a + b × X1,251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,817 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0588 + 0.0016 × 1,817 – 2 × 0.0710)
= Exp(5.8413)
= $344.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.95% per annum.
- CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was $329.81 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $18.33 (5.27%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: January 31, 2025
a = 9.9552
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0449
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0449) – 1
= 19.65%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,738 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(6.1391)
= $463.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,738 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.9597)
= $387.49
January 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.9459)
= $382.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.9552 + -0.0022 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0449)
= Exp(5.7664)
= $319.39
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.97% per annum.
- CSWI price at the close of January 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.