Martin Marietta Materials Inc (MLM)
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. is an American-based company. The company is a supplier of aggregates and heavy building materials, with operations spanning 26 states, Canada and the Caribbean. In particular, Martin Marietta supplies the resources for roads, sidewalks and foundations.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.03% per annum.
- MLM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $585.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.89% per annum.
- MLM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $50.35 (9.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MLM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 10, 2022
End date: August 2, 2024
a = 4.8434
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0703
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 39.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0703) – 1
= 32.49%
June 10, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8434 + 0.0009 × 932 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.8256)
= $338.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y642)
= Exp(a + b × X642 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 932 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8434 + 0.0009 × 932 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(5.5442)
= $255.75
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8434 + 0.0009 × 1,716 + 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(6.5334)
= $687.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8434 + 0.0009 × 1,716 – 2 × 0.0703)
= Exp(6.2520)
= $519.07
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 39.03% per annum.
- MLM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $585.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2024
End date: October 10, 2024
a = 7.5235
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0295
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0295) – 1
= 12.54%
February 27, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5235 + -0.0007 × 1,559 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(6.4723)
= $646.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,071)
= Exp(a + b × X1,071 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,559 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5235 + -0.0007 × 1,559 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(6.3541)
= $574.85
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5235 + -0.0007 × 1,785 + 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(6.3113)
= $550.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,228)
= Exp(a + b × X1,228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,785 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5235 + -0.0007 × 1,785 – 2 × 0.0295)
= Exp(6.1931)
= $489.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.89% per annum.
- MLM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $50.35 (9.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.