Stock Price Trends

Knife River Corporation (KNF)

Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.01% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $93.58 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.34% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KNF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 5.3099

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0407

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0407) – 1
= 17.69%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3099 + -0.0012 × 540 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.7539)
= $116.03

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3099 + -0.0012 × 540 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.5910)
= $98.59

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3099 + -0.0012 × 693 + 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.5733)
= $96.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3099 + -0.0012 × 693 – 2 × 0.0407)
= Exp(4.4104)
= $82.30

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 35.01% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $93.58 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 5.7567

b = -0.0019

s = 0.0423

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.34%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.44%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7567 + -0.0019 × 595 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.7328)
= $113.62

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7567 + -0.0019 × 595 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.5636)
= $95.93

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7567 + -0.0019 × 693 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.5503)
= $94.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y475)
= Exp(a + b × X475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 693 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7567 + -0.0019 × 693 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(4.3810)
= $79.92

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 49.34% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.