Stock Price Trends

Knife River Corporation (KNF)

Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.84% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $90.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.24% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KNF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 5.2816

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0394

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.84%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0394) – 1
= 17.05%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2816 + -0.0011 × 540 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.7491)
= $115.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2816 + -0.0011 × 540 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.5917)
= $98.66

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2816 + -0.0011 × 669 + 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.6030)
= $99.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2816 + -0.0011 × 669 – 2 × 0.0394)
= Exp(4.4456)
= $85.26

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.84% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $90.21 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025

a = 6.0874

b = -0.0024

s = 0.0376

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -58.24%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0376) – 1
= 16.24%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0874 + -0.0024 × 595 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.7392)
= $114.34

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0874 + -0.0024 × 595 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5887)
= $98.37

March 31, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 669 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0874 + -0.0024 × 669 + 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.5622)
= $95.79

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y458)
= Exp(a + b × X458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 669 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0874 + -0.0024 × 669 – 2 × 0.0376)
= Exp(4.4117)
= $82.41

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 58.24% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.