Stock Price Trends

Knife River Corporation (KNF)

Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.81% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $92.36 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.29% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KNF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 5.2808

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0391

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.81%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.94%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2808 + -0.0011 × 540 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.7485)
= $115.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2808 + -0.0011 × 540 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.5921)
= $98.70

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2808 + -0.0011 × 670 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.6016)
= $99.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2808 + -0.0011 × 670 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.4451)
= $85.21

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.81% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 1, 2025 was $92.36 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 16, 2025
End date: April 1, 2025

a = 6.0493

b = -0.0023

s = 0.0377

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0377) – 1
= 16.26%

January 16, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0493 + -0.0023 × 595 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.7377)
= $114.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y408)
= Exp(a + b × X408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 595 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0493 + -0.0023 × 595 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.5871)
= $98.21

April 1, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 670 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0493 + -0.0023 × 670 + 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.5629)
= $95.86

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y459)
= Exp(a + b × X459 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 670 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0493 + -0.0023 × 670 – 2 × 0.0377)
= Exp(4.4123)
= $82.46

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.29% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 1, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.