Stock Price Trends

Knife River Corporation (KNF)

Knife River Corporation provides aggregates-based construction materials and contracting services in the United States. The company is headquartered in Bismarck, North Dakota.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.41% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $95.21 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.58% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KNF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: November 22, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.2711

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0391

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0391) – 1
= 16.91%

November 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2711 + -0.0011 × 540 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.7477)
= $115.32

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y373)
= Exp(a + b × X373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 540 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2711 + -0.0011 × 540 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.5915)
= $98.64

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y460)
= Exp(a + b × X460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2711 + -0.0011 × 671 + 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.6018)
= $99.66

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y460)
= Exp(a + b × X460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2711 + -0.0011 × 671 – 2 × 0.0391)
= Exp(4.4455)
= $85.25

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 33.41% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $95.21 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 3, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 3.1961

b = 0.0020

s = 0.0268

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0020) – 1
= 108.58%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.32%

March 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1961 + 0.0020 × 641 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.5408)
= $93.77

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y438)
= Exp(a + b × X438 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1961 + 0.0020 × 641 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.4336)
= $84.23

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y460)
= Exp(a + b × X460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1961 + 0.0020 × 671 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.6012)
= $99.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y460)
= Exp(a + b × X460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 671 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1961 + 0.0020 × 671 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(4.4940)
= $89.48

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 108.58% per annum.
  • KNF price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.