Stock Price Trends

MGM Resorts International (MGM)

MGM Resorts International is an American global hospitality and entertainment company operating destination resorts globally.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.71% per annum.
  • MGM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $37.51 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.37% per annum.
  • MGM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MGM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.6665

b = 0.0000

s = 0.1142

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.71%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1142) – 1
= 57.87%

February 8, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6665 + 0.0000 × 445 + 2 × 0.1142)
= Exp(3.9034)
= $49.57

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6665 + 0.0000 × 445 – 2 × 0.1142)
= Exp(3.4468)
= $31.40

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6665 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1142)
= Exp(3.9301)
= $50.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6665 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1142)
= Exp(3.4735)
= $32.25

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.71% per annum.
  • MGM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $37.51 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: December 11, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.5855

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0527

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -17.37%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0527) – 1
= 23.48%

December 11, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5855 + -0.0005 × 1,481 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.9168)
= $50.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,019)
= Exp(a + b × X1,019 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,481 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5855 + -0.0005 × 1,481 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.7059)
= $40.69

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5855 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.7365)
= $41.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5855 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0527)
= Exp(3.5256)
= $33.97

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 17.37% per annum.
  • MGM price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.