Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN)
Churchill Downs Incorporated is a gaming, online betting and racing entertainment company in the United States. The company is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $139.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.43% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CHDN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 19, 2020
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.5016
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0883
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0883) – 1
= 42.34%
November 19, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5016 + 0.0002 × 364 + 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(4.7585)
= $116.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5016 + 0.0002 × 364 – 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(4.4054)
= $81.90
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5016 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(5.0813)
= $160.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5016 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0883)
= Exp(4.7283)
= $113.10
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 8.39% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $139.97 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 3.9584
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0437
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 22.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0437) – 1
= 19.12%
September 21, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9584 + 0.0006 × 1,400 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.8220)
= $124.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y963)
= Exp(a + b × X963 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,400 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9584 + 0.0006 × 1,400 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.6470)
= $104.27
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9584 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(5.0581)
= $157.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9584 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0437)
= Exp(4.8832)
= $132.05
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 22.43% per annum.
- CHDN price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.