Mister Car Wash Inc (MCW)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.02% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $7.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.94% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MCW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 19, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 2.4643
b = -0.0005
s = 0.1282
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1282) – 1
= 66.99%
August 19, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4643 + -0.0005 × 420 + 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.5199)
= $12.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y290)
= Exp(a + b × X290 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4643 + -0.0005 × 420 – 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.0071)
= $7.44
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4643 + -0.0005 × 1,244 + 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(2.1258)
= $8.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4643 + -0.0005 × 1,244 – 2 × 0.1282)
= Exp(1.6131)
= $5.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 16.02% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $7.71 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2023
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 1.8723
b = 0.0001
s = 0.1298
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 2.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1298) – 1
= 68.06%
August 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8723 + 0.0001 × 770 + 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(2.1930)
= $8.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y530)
= Exp(a + b × X530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8723 + 0.0001 × 770 – 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(1.6738)
= $5.33
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8723 + 0.0001 × 1,244 + 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(2.2306)
= $9.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y857)
= Exp(a + b × X857 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8723 + 0.0001 × 1,244 – 2 × 0.1298)
= Exp(1.7114)
= $5.54
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2.94% per annum.
- MCW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.