Stock Price Trends

H&R Block Inc (HRB)

H&R Block, Inc., provides services and products for assisted preparation of income tax returns and self-preparation of income tax returns (DIY) to the general public, primarily in the United States, Canada and Australia. The company is headquartered in Kansas City, Missouri.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.05% per annum.
  • HRB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $59.11 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.52% per annum.
  • HRB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HRB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 16, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 5.7875

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0181

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0181) – 1
= 7.49%

August 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7875 + -0.0009 × 1,718 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(4.2085)
= $67.26

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7875 + -0.0009 × 1,718 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(4.1363)
= $62.57

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7875 + -0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(4.1070)
= $60.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.7875 + -0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0181)
= Exp(4.0348)
= $56.53

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.05% per annum.
  • HRB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $59.11 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 16, 2024
End date: December 2, 2024

a = 6.2582

b = -0.0012

s = 0.0187

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -35.52%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0187) – 1
= 7.77%

September 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2582 + -0.0012 × 1,749 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1928)
= $66.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,203)
= Exp(a + b × X1,203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,749 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2582 + -0.0012 × 1,749 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1180)
= $61.44

December 2, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2582 + -0.0012 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.1003)
= $60.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2582 + -0.0012 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0187)
= Exp(4.0254)
= $56.00

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 35.52% per annum.
  • HRB price at the close of December 2, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.