Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.13% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $259.26 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.07% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.31 (4.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 22, 2021
End date: August 22, 2024

a = 5.1618

b = 0.0001

s = 0.0832

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0832) – 1
= 39.51%

March 22, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1618 + 0.0001 × 488 + 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.3951)
= $220.33

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y334)
= Exp(a + b × X334 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 488 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1618 + 0.0001 × 488 – 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.0622)
= $157.93

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1618 + 0.0001 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.5662)
= $261.44

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1618 + 0.0001 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0832)
= Exp(5.2333)
= $187.40

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 5.13% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $259.26 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: May 22, 2024
End date: October 28, 2024

a = 2.4476

b = 0.0018

s = 0.0262

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 90.07%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.07%

May 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4476 + 0.0018 × 1,645 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.3944)
= $220.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,132)
= Exp(a + b × X1,132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,645 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4476 + 0.0018 × 1,645 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.2895)
= $198.23

October 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4476 + 0.0018 × 1,804 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.6742)
= $291.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4476 + 0.0018 × 1,804 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.5692)
= $262.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 90.07% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $13.31 (4.88%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.