Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.68% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $223.29 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.12% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: April 4, 2025

a = 7.1430

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0323

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0323) – 1
= 13.80%

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1430 + -0.0009 × 1,638 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.6911)
= $296.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,128)
= Exp(a + b × X1,128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,638 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1430 + -0.0009 × 1,638 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.5618)
= $260.28

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1430 + -0.0009 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.5189)
= $249.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1430 + -0.0009 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0323)
= Exp(5.3896)
= $219.11

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.68% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was $223.29 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 21, 2025
End date: April 4, 2025

a = 9.6424

b = -0.0023

s = 0.0218

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.12%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0218) – 1
= 9.12%

January 21, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6424 + -0.0023 × 1,751 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(5.6234)
= $276.84

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,204)
= Exp(a + b × X1,204 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,751 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6424 + -0.0023 × 1,751 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(5.5362)
= $253.70

April 4, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6424 + -0.0023 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(5.4541)
= $233.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,256)
= Exp(a + b × X1,256 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.6424 + -0.0023 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0218)
= Exp(5.3668)
= $214.17

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 57.12% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.