Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.06% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $235.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 164.55% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.1054

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0320

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -28.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0320) – 1
= 13.64%

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1054 + -0.0009 × 1,641 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.6890)
= $295.58

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,129)
= Exp(a + b × X1,129 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,641 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1054 + -0.0009 × 1,641 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.5611)
= $260.10

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1054 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.5230)
= $250.38

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1054 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0320)
= Exp(5.3951)
= $220.32

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 28.06% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $235.28 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 13, 2025
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 0.5949

b = 0.0027

s = 0.0075

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0027) – 1
= 164.55%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0075) – 1
= 3.06%

March 13, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5949 + 0.0027 × 1,805 + 2 × 0.0075)
= Exp(5.4210)
= $226.11

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,241)
= Exp(a + b × X1,241 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,805 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5949 + 0.0027 × 1,805 – 2 × 0.0075)
= Exp(5.3908)
= $219.39

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5949 + 0.0027 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0075)
= Exp(5.4743)
= $238.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.5949 + 0.0027 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0075)
= Exp(5.4442)
= $231.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 164.55% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.