Stock Price Trends

Lowe's Companies Inc (LOW)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is an American retail company specializing in home improvement. Headquartered in Mooresville, North Carolina, the company operates a chain of retail stores in the United States and Canada.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.96% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $222.05 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.77% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 30, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 7.3351

b = -0.0011

s = 0.0343

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -31.96%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0343) – 1
= 14.71%

September 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3351 + -0.0011 × 1,617 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.6979)
= $298.24

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,114)
= Exp(a + b × X1,114 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,617 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3351 + -0.0011 × 1,617 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.5607)
= $259.99

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3351 + -0.0011 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.4806)
= $239.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3351 + -0.0011 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0343)
= Exp(5.3433)
= $209.21

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.96% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $222.05 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: January 17, 2025
End date: April 24, 2025

a = 9.4375

b = -0.0022

s = 0.0220

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.77%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0220) – 1
= 9.21%

January 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4375 + -0.0022 × 1,726 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.6240)
= $276.98

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,189)
= Exp(a + b × X1,189 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,726 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4375 + -0.0022 × 1,726 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.5359)
= $253.62

April 24, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4375 + -0.0022 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.4072)
= $223.00

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.4375 + -0.0022 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(5.3191)
= $204.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.77% per annum.
  • LOW price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.