Stock Price Trends

Floor & Decor Holdings Inc (FND)

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is a multi-channel specialty retailer of hard surface flooring and related accessories. The company is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.67% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $103.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $31.12 (43.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.21% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FND price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: December 8, 2020
End date: January 30, 2023

a = 4.9902

b = -0.0006

s = 0.1627

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.67%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1627) – 1
= 91.70%

December 8, 2020 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9902 + -0.0006 × 383 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(5.0987)
= $163.81

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9902 + -0.0006 × 383 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.4479)
= $85.45

January 30, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y801)
= Exp(a + b × X801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,166 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9902 + -0.0006 × 1,166 + 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.6554)
= $105.15

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y801)
= Exp(a + b × X801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,166 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9902 + -0.0006 × 1,166 – 2 × 0.1627)
= Exp(4.0046)
= $54.85

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.67% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $103.48 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $31.12 (43.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 31, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.8887

b = 0.0005

s = 0.1076

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1076) – 1
= 53.78%

March 31, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 861 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8887 + 0.0005 × 861 + 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(4.5184)
= $91.69

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y593)
= Exp(a + b × X593 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 861 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8887 + 0.0005 × 861 – 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(4.0881)
= $59.62

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8887 + 0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(4.9831)
= $145.92

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8887 + 0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1076)
= Exp(4.5527)
= $94.89

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.21% per annum.
  • FND price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.