LKQ Corporation (LKQ)
LKQ Corporation (Like Kind and Quality) is an American provider of alternative and speciality parts to repair and accessorise automobiles and other vehicles.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.12% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.46% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LKQ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 4.6625
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0558
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -18.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0558) – 1
= 24.99%
January 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6625 + -0.0005 × 1,143 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(4.1481)
= $63.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6625 + -0.0005 × 1,143 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(3.9250)
= $50.65
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6625 + -0.0005 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(3.7741)
= $43.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6625 + -0.0005 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0558)
= Exp(3.5510)
= $34.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.12% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $37.60 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.6349
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0474
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -33.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0474) – 1
= 20.89%
February 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6349 + -0.0011 × 1,548 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(4.0024)
= $54.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,065)
= Exp(a + b × X1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,548 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6349 + -0.0011 × 1,548 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(3.8127)
= $45.27
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6349 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(3.6922)
= $40.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6349 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(3.5025)
= $33.20
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 33.46% per annum.
- LKQ price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.