Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is an American service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.16% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $120.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.94% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 5.4621
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0600
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.16%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0600) – 1
= 27.10%
October 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4621 + -0.0003 × 1,065 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(5.2367)
= $188.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y734)
= Exp(a + b × X734 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,065 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4621 + -0.0003 × 1,065 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.9969)
= $147.96
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4621 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.9900)
= $146.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4621 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0600)
= Exp(4.7502)
= $115.60
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.16% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $120.76 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 11, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 6.3377
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0478
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0478) – 1
= 21.08%
March 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3377 + -0.0008 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(5.1403)
= $170.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,080)
= Exp(a + b × X1,080 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3377 + -0.0008 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.9490)
= $141.03
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3377 + -0.0008 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.9313)
= $138.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3377 + -0.0008 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0478)
= Exp(4.7400)
= $114.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.94% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.