Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is an American service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.61% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $117.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.47% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.4484
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.20%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y629)
= Exp(a + b × X629 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 910 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.2286)
= $186.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y629)
= Exp(a + b × X629 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 910 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.9959)
= $147.80
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.8913)
= $133.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(4.6586)
= $105.49
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.61% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was $117.09 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: April 24, 2025
a = 5.9973
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.05%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9973 + -0.0007 × 1,407 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(5.1077)
= $165.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9973 + -0.0007 × 1,407 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.9249)
= $137.68
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9973 + -0.0007 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.8176)
= $123.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9973 + -0.0007 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.6349)
= $103.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.47% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 24, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.