Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is an American service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.39% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $120.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.54% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 5.4484
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0583
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0583) – 1
= 26.27%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 934 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 934 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(5.2267)
= $186.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y644)
= Exp(a + b × X644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 934 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 934 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(4.9935)
= $147.45
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(4.9039)
= $134.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4484 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0583)
= Exp(4.6707)
= $106.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.39% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $120.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 4, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025
a = 6.0182
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.54%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.42%
March 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0182 + -0.0007 × 1,431 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.1096)
= $165.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y984)
= Exp(a + b × X984 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0182 + -0.0007 × 1,431 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.9238)
= $137.52
April 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0182 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.8338)
= $125.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0182 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(4.6480)
= $104.38
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.54% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.