Genuine Parts Co (GPC)
Genuine Parts Company (GPC) is an American service organization engaged in the distribution of automotive replacement parts, industrial replacement parts, office products and electrical/electronic materials.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.38% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $119.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.85% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GPC price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 24, 2022
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.4490
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0584
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -12.38%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0584) – 1
= 26.31%
October 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4490 + -0.0004 × 936 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(5.2268)
= $186.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 936 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4490 + -0.0004 × 936 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.9932)
= $147.41
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4490 + -0.0004 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.9049)
= $134.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4490 + -0.0004 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0584)
= Exp(4.6713)
= $106.84
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 12.38% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $119.14 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.0376
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0466
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0466) – 1
= 20.48%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0376 + -0.0007 × 1,436 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(5.1099)
= $165.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y989)
= Exp(a + b × X989 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0376 + -0.0007 × 1,436 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(4.9237)
= $137.50
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0376 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(4.8334)
= $125.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0376 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0466)
= Exp(4.6471)
= $104.29
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.85% per annum.
- GPC price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.