Stock Price Trends

Koppers Holdings Inc (KOP)

Koppers Holdings Inc. offers treated wood products, wood treatment chemicals, and carbon compounds in the United States, Australasia, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.68% per annum.
  • KOP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $37.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.00 (0.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.35% per annum.
  • KOP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KOP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 19, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 6.7176

b = -0.0018

s = 0.0742

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -47.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0742) – 1
= 34.54%

January 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7176 + -0.0018 × 1,520 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(4.1684)
= $64.61

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,045)
= Exp(a + b × X1,045 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7176 + -0.0018 × 1,520 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.8717)
= $48.02

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7176 + -0.0018 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.6519)
= $38.55

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,246)
= Exp(a + b × X1,246 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.7176 + -0.0018 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0742)
= Exp(3.3552)
= $28.65

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 47.68% per annum.
  • KOP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $37.54 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.00 (0.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 14, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 4.0820

b = -0.0003

s = 0.0393

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -9.35%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0393) – 1
= 17.02%

June 14, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0820 + -0.0003 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.7123)
= $40.95

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,147)
= Exp(a + b × X1,147 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0820 + -0.0003 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.5552)
= $34.99

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0820 + -0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.6696)
= $39.23

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0820 + -0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0393)
= Exp(3.5124)
= $33.53

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 9.35% per annum.
  • KOP price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.