Stock Price Trends

Dow Inc (DOW)

Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.21% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.93 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.05% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 5, 2021
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.9399

b = 0.0000

s = 0.0831

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.21%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0831) – 1
= 39.44%

February 5, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9399 + 0.0000 × 442 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(4.1036)
= $60.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9399 + 0.0000 × 442 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.7712)
= $43.43

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9399 + 0.0000 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(4.0957)
= $60.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9399 + 0.0000 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0831)
= Exp(3.7633)
= $43.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 0.21% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $43.93 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 11, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 14.0050

b = -0.0056

s = 0.0132

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0056) – 1
= -87.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0132) – 1
= 5.44%

October 11, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.0050 + -0.0056 × 1,786 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(4.0290)
= $56.21

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,229)
= Exp(a + b × X1,229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,786 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.0050 + -0.0056 × 1,786 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.9761)
= $53.31

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.0050 + -0.0056 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.8050)
= $44.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.0050 + -0.0056 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0132)
= Exp(3.7521)
= $42.61

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 87.05% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.