Stock Price Trends

Dow Inc (DOW)

Dow Inc. is an American commodity chemical company. The company is headquartered in Midland, Michigan.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.31% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $34.89 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.64% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 27, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 5.9379

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0520

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -37.31%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0520) – 1
= 23.11%

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9379 + -0.0013 × 1,454 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(4.1817)
= $65.48

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9379 + -0.0013 × 1,454 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.9738)
= $53.19

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9379 + -0.0013 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.7071)
= $40.74

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9379 + -0.0013 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0520)
= Exp(3.4992)
= $33.09

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 37.31% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was $34.89 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: September 17, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 7.2718

b = -0.0020

s = 0.0432

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -52.64%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0432) – 1
= 18.84%

September 17, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2718 + -0.0020 × 1,628 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(4.0242)
= $55.94

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,120)
= Exp(a + b × X1,120 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,628 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2718 + -0.0020 × 1,628 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.8516)
= $47.07

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2718 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.6208)
= $37.37

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.2718 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0432)
= Exp(3.4482)
= $31.44

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 52.64% per annum.
  • DOW price at the close of April 2, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.