Kaiser Aluminum Corporation (KALU)
Kaiser Aluminum Corporation manufactures and sells specialty semi-finished aluminum mill products. The company is headquartered in Foothill Ranch, California.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.26% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $80.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.92 (30.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.89% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KALU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 8, 2021
End date: February 21, 2024
a = 4.9159
b = -0.0006
s = 0.1046
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -18.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1046) – 1
= 51.93%
February 8, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9159 + -0.0006 × 445 + 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(4.8792)
= $131.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9159 + -0.0006 × 445 – 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(4.4609)
= $86.57
February 21, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9159 + -0.0006 × 1,553 + 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(4.2669)
= $71.30
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,067)
= Exp(a + b × X1,067 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9159 + -0.0006 × 1,553 – 2 × 0.1046)
= Exp(3.8487)
= $46.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 18.26% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $80.24 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $18.92 (30.86%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024
a = 4.0460
b = 0.0002
s = 0.1338
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1338) – 1
= 70.79%
June 16, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0460 + 0.0002 × 938 + 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(4.4607)
= $86.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y646)
= Exp(a + b × X646 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0460 + 0.0002 × 938 – 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(3.9254)
= $50.67
November 20, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0460 + 0.0002 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(4.5998)
= $99.47
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0460 + 0.0002 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1338)
= Exp(4.0646)
= $58.24
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.89% per annum.
- KALU price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.