Century Aluminum Company (CENX)
Century Aluminum Company produces standard quality and value-added primary aluminum products in the United States and Iceland. The company is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 260.31% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $22.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (6.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.58% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.89 (35.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CENX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2023
End date: July 18, 2024
a = -2.9369
b = 0.0035
s = 0.1425
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 260.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1425) – 1
= 76.82%
August 10, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9369 + 0.0035 × 1,346 + 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(2.0748)
= $7.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y927)
= Exp(a + b × X927 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,346 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9369 + 0.0035 × 1,346 – 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(1.5049)
= $4.50
July 18, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9369 + 0.0035 × 1,689 + 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(3.2794)
= $26.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,162)
= Exp(a + b × X1,162 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,689 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.9369 + 0.0035 × 1,689 – 2 × 0.1425)
= Exp(2.7094)
= $15.02
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 260.31% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 2, 2024 was $22.68 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.62 (6.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 25, 2024
End date: October 10, 2024
a = 4.5074
b = -0.0010
s = 0.1058
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1058) – 1
= 52.71%
March 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5074 + -0.0010 × 1,574 + 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(3.0825)
= $21.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,083)
= Exp(a + b × X1,083 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,574 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5074 + -0.0010 × 1,574 – 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(2.6592)
= $14.28
October 10, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5074 + -0.0010 × 1,773 + 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(2.8756)
= $17.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,773 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5074 + -0.0010 × 1,773 – 2 × 0.1058)
= Exp(2.4523)
= $11.61
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.58% per annum.
- CENX price at the close of December 2, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $5.89 (35.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.