Stock Price Trends

Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.13% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $50.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.01% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.18 (4.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GLPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: August 22, 2024

a = 3.5610

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0542

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.23%

April 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5610 + 0.0002 × 512 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.7530)
= $42.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y351)
= Exp(a + b × X351 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 512 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5610 + 0.0002 × 512 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.5360)
= $34.33

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5610 + 0.0002 × 1,737 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.9527)
= $52.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,195)
= Exp(a + b × X1,195 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,737 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5610 + 0.0002 × 1,737 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.7358)
= $41.92

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.13% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $50.25 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 18, 2024

a = 1.5639

b = 0.0013

s = 0.0246

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.01%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0246) – 1
= 10.33%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5639 + 0.0013 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.7591)
= $42.91

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,102)
= Exp(a + b × X1,102 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5639 + 0.0013 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.6609)
= $38.89

October 18, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5639 + 0.0013 × 1,794 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(4.0149)
= $55.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,794 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.5639 + 0.0013 × 1,794 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(3.9166)
= $50.23

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.01% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of November 19, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $2.18 (4.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.