Stock Price Trends

Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI)

None

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.13% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $51.31 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.82% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GLPI price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2021
End date: August 22, 2024

a = 3.5555

b = 0.0002

s = 0.0542

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 6.13%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0542) – 1
= 24.23%

April 15, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y375)
= Exp(a + b × X375 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5555 + 0.0002 × 546 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.7530)
= $42.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y375)
= Exp(a + b × X375 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 546 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5555 + 0.0002 × 546 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.5360)
= $34.33

August 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5555 + 0.0002 × 1,771 + 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.9527)
= $52.08

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,219)
= Exp(a + b × X1,219 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,771 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5555 + 0.0002 × 1,771 – 2 × 0.0542)
= Exp(3.7358)
= $41.92

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 6.13% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of October 16, 2024 was $51.31 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 10, 2024
End date: October 16, 2024

a = 1.4953

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0245

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 63.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.29%

April 10, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4953 + 0.0014 × 1,637 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(3.7581)
= $42.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,126)
= Exp(a + b × X1,126 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,637 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4953 + 0.0014 × 1,637 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(3.6602)
= $38.87

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4953 + 0.0014 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(4.0137)
= $55.35

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.4953 + 0.0014 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(3.9158)
= $50.19

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.82% per annum.
  • GLPI price at the close of October 16, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.