Federal Signal Corporation (FSS)
Federal Signal Corporation designs, manufactures, and supplies a suite of integrated products and solutions for municipal, government, industrial, and commercial customers in the United States, Canada, Europe, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Oak Brook, Illinois.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.28% per annum.
- FSS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $91.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.87 (4.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.50% per annum.
- FSS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2022
End date: August 30, 2024
a = 2.4657
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0556
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 55.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0556) – 1
= 24.89%
February 24, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y569)
= Exp(a + b × X569 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 827 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4657 + 0.0012 × 827 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.5739)
= $35.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y569)
= Exp(a + b × X569 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 827 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4657 + 0.0012 × 827 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(3.3517)
= $28.55
August 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4657 + 0.0012 × 1,745 + 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.6808)
= $107.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,201)
= Exp(a + b × X1,201 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,745 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.4657 + 0.0012 × 1,745 – 2 × 0.0556)
= Exp(4.4585)
= $86.36
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 55.28% per annum.
- FSS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $91.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.87 (4.06%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 11, 2023
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 3.4075
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0457
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0457) – 1
= 20.07%
December 11, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4075 + 0.0006 × 1,482 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.4213)
= $83.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,020)
= Exp(a + b × X1,020 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,482 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4075 + 0.0006 × 1,482 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.2384)
= $69.29
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4075 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.6354)
= $103.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4075 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0457)
= Exp(4.4525)
= $85.84
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 25.50% per annum.
- FSS price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.