Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX)
The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. designs, manufactures and markets rail freight car equipment in North America, Europe and South America. The company is headquartered in Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.29% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.80% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.93 (3.08%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GBX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 6, 2023
End date: June 24, 2024
a = 1.6993
b = 0.0014
s = 0.1062
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 65.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1062) – 1
= 52.94%
January 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6993 + 0.0014 × 1,143 + 2 × 0.1062)
= Exp(3.4853)
= $32.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y787)
= Exp(a + b × X787 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,143 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6993 + 0.0014 × 1,143 – 2 × 0.1062)
= Exp(3.0605)
= $21.34
June 24, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6993 + 0.0014 × 1,678 + 2 × 0.1062)
= Exp(4.2219)
= $68.16
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,153)
= Exp(a + b × X1,153 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,678 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6993 + 0.0014 × 1,678 – 2 × 0.1062)
= Exp(3.7970)
= $44.57
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 65.29% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $64.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 29, 2023
End date: October 23, 2024
a = 2.8960
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0870
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0870) – 1
= 41.65%
June 29, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8960 + 0.0006 × 1,317 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(3.8405)
= $46.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y906)
= Exp(a + b × X906 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8960 + 0.0006 × 1,317 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(3.4923)
= $32.86
October 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8960 + 0.0006 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(4.1225)
= $61.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8960 + 0.0006 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0870)
= Exp(3.7743)
= $43.57
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.80% per annum.
- GBX price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.93 (3.08%).