Stock Price Trends

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. (EXPD)

Expeditors (Expeditors International of Washington) is an American worldwide logistics and freight forwarding company headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.26% per annum.
  • EXPD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $39.34 (49.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.47% per annum.
  • EXPD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of EXPD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: March 25, 2021
End date: November 9, 2022

a = 5.0407

b = -0.0005

s = 0.0765

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -15.26%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0765) – 1
= 35.83%

March 25, 2021 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y337)
= Exp(a + b × X337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 491 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0407 + -0.0005 × 491 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.9711)
= $144.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y337)
= Exp(a + b × X337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 491 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0407 + -0.0005 × 491 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.6649)
= $106.15

November 9, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0407 + -0.0005 × 1,085 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.7017)
= $110.13

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y748)
= Exp(a + b × X748 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0407 + -0.0005 × 1,085 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(4.3955)
= $81.08

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 15.26% per annum.
  • EXPD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $118.03 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $39.34 (49.99%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 11, 2022
End date: November 19, 2024

a = 4.3486

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0543

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.47%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0543) – 1
= 24.24%

February 11, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y561)
= Exp(a + b × X561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 814 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3486 + 0.0003 × 814 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.6791)
= $107.68

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y561)
= Exp(a + b × X561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 814 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3486 + 0.0003 × 814 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.4621)
= $86.67

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3486 + 0.0003 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.9551)
= $141.90

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3486 + 0.0003 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0543)
= Exp(4.7381)
= $114.21

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.47% per annum.
  • EXPD price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.