United Parcel Service Inc (UPS)
United Parcel Service is an American multinational shipping & receiving and supply chain management company founded in 1907.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.83% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $109.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.13% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UPS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 21, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.4308
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0608
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0608) – 1
= 27.52%
October 21, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 568 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4308 + -0.0003 × 568 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(5.3565)
= $211.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y393)
= Exp(a + b × X393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 568 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4308 + -0.0003 × 568 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(5.1134)
= $166.24
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4308 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.9231)
= $137.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4308 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0608)
= Exp(4.6800)
= $107.77
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 11.83% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $109.99 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: January 31, 2023
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 5.6391
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0474
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0474) – 1
= 20.88%
January 31, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6391 + -0.0005 × 1,035 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.2351)
= $187.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y713)
= Exp(a + b × X713 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6391 + -0.0005 × 1,035 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.0455)
= $155.33
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6391 + -0.0005 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(4.8544)
= $128.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6391 + -0.0005 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(4.6648)
= $106.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.13% per annum.
- UPS price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.