Core & Main Inc (CNM)
None
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.56% per annum.
- CNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $44.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.13% per annum.
- CNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CNM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.4715
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0658
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0658) – 1
= 30.12%
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4715 + -0.0014 × 971 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(4.2194)
= $67.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y668)
= Exp(a + b × X668 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 971 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4715 + -0.0014 × 971 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(3.9561)
= $52.25
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4715 + -0.0014 × 1,216 + 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(3.8702)
= $47.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4715 + -0.0014 × 1,216 – 2 × 0.0658)
= Exp(3.6069)
= $36.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.56% per annum.
- CNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $44.92 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 4, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 2.1914
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 63.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.20%
September 4, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1914 + 0.0013 × 1,140 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.8118)
= $45.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y784)
= Exp(a + b × X784 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1914 + 0.0013 × 1,140 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.6279)
= $37.63
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,216 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1914 + 0.0013 × 1,216 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.9137)
= $50.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y838)
= Exp(a + b × X838 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,216 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1914 + 0.0013 × 1,216 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(3.7298)
= $41.67
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 63.13% per annum.
- CNM price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.