Stock Price Trends

Now Inc (DNOW)

NOW Inc. distributes downstream power and industrial products for oil refining, chemical processing, LNG terminals, power generation services, and industrial manufacturing operations in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.29% per annum.
  • DNOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (9.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,820.41% per annum.
  • DNOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of DNOW price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: February 28, 2024
End date: November 5, 2024

a = 4.0808

b = -0.0009

s = 0.0423

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.29%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.46%

February 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0808 + -0.0009 × 1,561 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(2.8028)
= $16.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,073)
= Exp(a + b × X1,073 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,561 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0808 + -0.0009 × 1,561 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(2.6334)
= $13.92

November 5, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0808 + -0.0009 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(2.5837)
= $13.25

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0808 + -0.0009 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(2.4143)
= $11.18

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.29% per annum.
  • DNOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $14.36 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.28 (9.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 23, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024

a = -16.7745

b = 0.0107

s = 0.0515

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0107) – 1
= 4,820.41%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0515) – 1
= 22.86%

October 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.7745 + 0.0107 × 1,799 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.5308)
= $12.56

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,799 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.7745 + 0.0107 × 1,799 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.3250)
= $10.23

November 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.7745 + 0.0107 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.8190)
= $16.76

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-16.7745 + 0.0107 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0515)
= Exp(2.6132)
= $13.64

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 4,820.41% per annum.
  • DNOW price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.