Avis Budget Group Inc (CAR)
Avis Budget Group, Inc., offers car and truck rental, car sharing and ancillary services to businesses and consumers. The company is headquartered in Parsippany, New Jersey.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.29% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $100.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.60 (9.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,208.26% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 15, 2023
End date: November 5, 2024
a = 8.3341
b = -0.0022
s = 0.1044
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1044) – 1
= 51.82%
June 15, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3341 + -0.0022 × 1,303 + 2 × 0.1044)
= Exp(5.6693)
= $289.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y897)
= Exp(a + b × X897 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3341 + -0.0022 × 1,303 – 2 × 0.1044)
= Exp(5.2517)
= $190.90
November 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3341 + -0.0022 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.1044)
= Exp(4.5467)
= $94.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,247)
= Exp(a + b × X1,247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3341 + -0.0022 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.1044)
= Exp(4.1292)
= $62.13
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 55.29% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $100.06 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $8.60 (9.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 15, 2024
End date: November 19, 2024
a = -11.0591
b = 0.0086
s = 0.0344
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0086) – 1
= 2,208.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0344) – 1
= 14.73%
October 15, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0591 + 0.0086 × 1,791 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.4126)
= $82.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,232)
= Exp(a + b × X1,232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0591 + 0.0086 × 1,791 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.2751)
= $71.89
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0591 + 0.0086 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.7136)
= $111.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-11.0591 + 0.0086 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0344)
= Exp(4.5761)
= $97.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,208.26% per annum.
- CAR price at the close of November 19, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.