Stock Price Trends

Hertz Global Holdings Inc (HTZ)

Hertz Global Holdings, Inc. is a car rental company. The company is headquartered in Estero, Florida.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 147.06% per annum.
  • HTZ price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $6.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.62% per annum.
  • HTZ price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HTZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 9, 2024
End date: June 30, 2025

a = -1.7779

b = 0.0025

s = 0.1721

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 147.06%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1721) – 1
= 99.07%

August 9, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7779 + 0.0025 × 1,135 + 2 × 0.1721)
= Exp(1.3788)
= $3.97

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y781)
= Exp(a + b × X781 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7779 + 0.0025 × 1,135 – 2 × 0.1721)
= Exp(0.6903)
= $1.99

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7779 + 0.0025 × 1,460 + 2 × 0.1721)
= Exp(2.1842)
= $8.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.7779 + 0.0025 × 1,460 – 2 × 0.1721)
= Exp(1.4957)
= $4.46

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 147.06% per annum.
  • HTZ price at the close of June 30, 2025 was $6.83 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: April 17, 2025
End date: June 30, 2025

a = 5.4410

b = -0.0025

s = 0.1012

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0025) – 1
= -59.62%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1012) – 1
= 49.88%

April 17, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4410 + -0.0025 × 1,386 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(2.1999)
= $9.02

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y953)
= Exp(a + b × X953 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,386 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4410 + -0.0025 × 1,386 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(1.7953)
= $6.02

June 30, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4410 + -0.0025 × 1,460 + 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(2.0161)
= $7.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,002)
= Exp(a + b × X1,002 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4410 + -0.0025 × 1,460 – 2 × 0.1012)
= Exp(1.6114)
= $5.01

Description

  • The secondary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the secondary trend is 59.62% per annum.
  • HTZ price at the close of June 30, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.