Stock Price Trends

AptarGroup Inc (ATR)

AptarGroup, Inc. offers a range of packaging, dispensing and sealing solutions primarily for the beauty, personal care, home care, prescription drug, consumer health care, injectables, and food and beverage markets. The company is headquartered in Crystal Lake, Illinois.

Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.53% per annum.
  • ATR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $168.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.82% per annum.
  • ATR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ATR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: August 26, 2022
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 3.9427

b = 0.0006

s = 0.0363

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 25.53%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0363) – 1
= 15.61%

August 26, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9427 + 0.0006 × 1,009 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(4.6437)
= $103.93

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y695)
= Exp(a + b × X695 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,009 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9427 + 0.0006 × 1,009 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(4.4986)
= $89.90

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9427 + 0.0006 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.1526)
= $172.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9427 + 0.0006 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0363)
= Exp(5.0075)
= $149.53

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 25.53% per annum.
  • ATR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was $168.73 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: June 28, 2024
End date: November 20, 2024

a = 2.2444

b = 0.0016

s = 0.0180

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 78.82%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.46%

June 28, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2444 + 0.0016 × 1,681 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.9572)
= $142.19

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,156)
= Exp(a + b × X1,156 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,681 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2444 + 0.0016 × 1,681 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(4.8852)
= $132.31

November 20, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2444 + 0.0016 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.1881)
= $179.12

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2444 + 0.0016 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.1161)
= $166.68

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 78.82% per annum.
  • ATR price at the close of November 20, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.