Greif Bros Corporation (GEF)
Greif, Inc. produces and sells industrial packaging products and services worldwide. The company is headquartered in Delaware, Ohio.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.35% per annum.
- GEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $54.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.94 (1.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.58% per annum.
- GEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GEF price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 12, 2021
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 3.9899
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0652
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0652) – 1
= 29.82%
April 12, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 376 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9899 + 0.0001 × 376 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(4.1544)
= $63.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 376 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9899 + 0.0001 × 376 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(3.8934)
= $49.08
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9899 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(4.2850)
= $72.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9899 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0652)
= Exp(4.0240)
= $55.93
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 3.35% per annum.
- GEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $54.99 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $0.94 (1.67%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 6, 2024
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 6.8624
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0350
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0350) – 1
= 15.03%
November 6, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8624 + -0.0016 × 1,680 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.2979)
= $73.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,158)
= Exp(a + b × X1,158 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8624 + -0.0016 × 1,680 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.1578)
= $63.93
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8624 + -0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(4.0705)
= $58.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8624 + -0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0350)
= Exp(3.9305)
= $50.93
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.58% per annum.
- GEF price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.