Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)
Allegiant Travel Company, a leisure travel company, provides travel products and services to residents of underserved cities in the United States. The company is headquartered in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.07% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $70.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $40.76 (135.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.02% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.92 (2.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ALGT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: February 1, 2023
a = 6.4103
b = -0.0018
s = 0.1352
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0018) – 1
= -48.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1352) – 1
= 71.73%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4103 + -0.0018 × 442 + 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(5.8871)
= $360.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4103 + -0.0018 × 442 – 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(5.3464)
= $209.85
February 1, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y804)
= Exp(a + b × X804 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,169 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4103 + -0.0018 × 1,169 + 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(4.5818)
= $97.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y804)
= Exp(a + b × X804 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,169 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4103 + -0.0018 × 1,169 – 2 × 0.1352)
= Exp(4.0411)
= $56.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 48.07% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was $70.79 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $40.76 (135.73%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2021
End date: November 19, 2024
a = 5.9302
b = -0.0011
s = 0.1909
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1909) – 1
= 114.64%
February 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0011 × 442 + 2 × 0.1909)
= Exp(5.8087)
= $333.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 442 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0011 × 442 – 2 × 0.1909)
= Exp(5.0449)
= $155.22
November 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.1909)
= Exp(4.2322)
= $68.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9302 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.1909)
= Exp(3.4684)
= $32.09
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.02% per annum.
- ALGT price at the close of November 19, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.92 (2.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.