Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc (SNCY)
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc., an air transportation company, provides scheduled passenger service, air cargo service, charter air transportation, and related services in the United States, Latin America, and internationally. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.82% per annum.
- SNCY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $12.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.66 (11.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.33% per annum.
- SNCY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SNCY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2024
End date: March 7, 2025
a = 0.3225
b = 0.0017
s = 0.1053
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 86.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1053) – 1
= 52.36%
May 8, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3225 + 0.0017 × 1,148 + 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(2.4987)
= $12.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y791)
= Exp(a + b × X791 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,148 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3225 + 0.0017 × 1,148 – 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(2.0776)
= $7.99
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3225 + 0.0017 × 1,451 + 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(3.0175)
= $20.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.3225 + 0.0017 × 1,451 – 2 × 0.1053)
= Exp(2.5965)
= $13.42
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 86.82% per annum.
- SNCY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was $12.32 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.66 (11.87%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 10, 2025
End date: March 31, 2025
a = 14.1035
b = -0.0079
s = 0.0526
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0079) – 1
= -94.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0526) – 1
= 23.43%
February 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1035 + -0.0079 × 1,426 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(2.9956)
= $20.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y980)
= Exp(a + b × X980 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1035 + -0.0079 × 1,426 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(2.7851)
= $16.20
March 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1035 + -0.0079 × 1,475 + 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(2.6102)
= $13.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,014)
= Exp(a + b × X1,014 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.1035 + -0.0079 × 1,475 – 2 × 0.0526)
= Exp(2.3998)
= $11.02
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 94.33% per annum.
- SNCY price at the close of March 31, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.